Handle Uncertainty Like a Pro

Photo by Vladislav Babienko on Unsplash

The ability to be comfortable and perform at a high level under uncertainty is considered to be one of the top indicators of career success.

We face uncertainty at work regularly.

Some examples of these could be:

• Unsure of the impact of an upcoming re-org

• Uncertain if our promotion will be approved by committee

• Competing for a coveted open role within the company

How we handle these situations and perform during these periods plays a key role in our success. Yet, many people become paralyzed during these pivotal moments and it costs them significantly in their careers.

Here is a framework for handling uncertainty that I have applied to my life for the last decade.

1. Identify all of the possible outcomes in the situation

2. Outline all the opportunities and downsides for those possible outcomes

3. Create a high level plan on how to tackle each of those possible outcomes

4. Visualize yourself living in those outcomes and being happy

5. Finally put the responsibility of the outcome in an external source: god or the universe or your boss. :)

This process reduces the fear of the unknown, helps you prepare for the different outcomes including the worst case and finally helps you realize that there is a plan that you can be happy with no matter what the outcome.

You have taken care of the inputs which are within your sphere of influence and the universe will take care of the outcomes which are out of your hands.

My experience dealing with uncertainty

Here's an example of one of the most challenging and uncertain years of my life. In 2010, my wife who was in the 4th year of med school was applying for residency. The residency match process is one of the most nerve racking experience and puts your life on hold for a full year as you don't know which city/town you may end up in the entire United States.

The way the match process works is:

1. You apply to a large number of hospitals across the country,

2. You get interviewed on-site by some of them,

3. You rank them in order of your preference,

4. The hospitals rank med students by order of their preference

5. An algorithm determines which hospital you got matched

6. You get the result in an envelope while you are surrounded by the families of all your class mates.

The spread of outcomes is huge with the top choice being life changing to dropping to your back up of back ups which could be in the middle of nowhere throwing your spouse's career out the window.

For us the choices were: Bay Area, New York, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Chicago.

If we ended in the Bay Area, New York or Los Angeles my tech career had a more clear path laid out. If we ended up in Philadelphia, Baltimore or Chicago I needed to come up with more dramatic plans to reset my career. And I had to deal with a full year of not knowing where we would land!

So here is what I did:

1. I made a plan for what I would do with my career in each of those cities. I made a list of companies I would like to work at if we ended up in the Bay Area, NY and Los Angeles. If we ended up with Philadelphia, Baltimore or Chicago I was going to found a tech startup.

2. I visited every city along with my wife and visualized us living in those cities. What would our life look like, what would we enjoy, what would we dislike.

3. I made a plan for how long we would live in each of those cities if we ended up there.

4. I made peace with the worst case scenario and decided I would be happy no matter what the outcome so I would not make my wife feel bad.

Luckily, my wife matched at UCSF, and we moved to the Bay Area, which was our top choice. We've had a good life. But if any of those other scenarios occurred, I would like to believe that that we were as best prepared as we could to handle them because of the process that we went through.